Yearly Chart
I attempted to come up with a price target by drawing a channel that markets the very lows of the major recessions/depressions. These price dates 1942 and 1974. They seem to draw a pretty decent channel. I then noticed that every major downturn in the market has started at or above the channel and then has not ended until it touched the bottom of the channel (this is in fact the definition of a channel, but....). With that said it would make sense to me that we should touch the bottom of the channel which correlates to around 5000 in the DJIA by 2012.
Another Way:
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