Wednesday, October 6, 2010

September Slump

Real Account
September is historically a month when the stock market takes a hit. Unfortunately (for me) this September defied history and S&P500 climbed steadily more than 100 points. Unfortunately, this coincided with the time when I stopped paying close attention to the market and ended up taking some hits. As I look back, I can see that all my signals were there and had I followed my trading system, I would have profitted even though my bearish outlook was incorrect.

Oh well, lessons learned. For now, I have a lot of cash just because I am unsure as to what the market is doing. We broke the 1145 resistance I had been holding on to but my indicators are not giving bullish signals yet. The shorter term charts are bearish while the longer term ones are bullish/consolidating. See the chart below. An interesting point to watch for is the fact that the downward and upwards channels have created a confluence zone right above the current price. I think the market is going to test these trend lines and whichever side the price breaks to is the side to bet on.



Virtual Account
Since I am not a full time trader, keeping up with the signals spit out by my heat map was overwhelming. At one point I was up nearly 10% on the account (of $100,000) in a matter of 2-3 days but because I was unable to liquidate when the signals showed up(due to negligence), I did not capture the profits and now I am down 7%. Clearly, I need to either dedicate all my time to this or develop some sort of automatic trading system.

So, that is my next project. I have already refine the program to spit out buy/sell signals instead of TD studies' counts. The program needs some refinement and then eventually I am going to set it up so it can put through automatic buy/sell orders.

-Wown
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