Thursday, September 10, 2009

Put/Call Ratios out of whack

When I learned about P/C ratios I read ".80 - 1.00 is usually normal. A ratio of .70 is seen as very bullish and 1.10 is usually seen as very bearish sentiment by the 'smart money'".

I randomly decided to check the P/C ratio for various indices, futures, and my holdings today and was surprised. Below is a summary:

QQQQ - 1.384
SPY - 1.424
/SI (Silver) - 1.751
/NG (Nat Gas) - 1.031
/CL (Light Sweet Crude Oil) - 1.758
/GC (Gold) - .458

The smart money seems to think we are headed down and big time. Yet the rally continues with no end in site. All the momentum indicators are pointing up; Breadth seems to be in good shape; and advancers far outweigh the decliners. Who is buying the stocks when it seems like everyone is buying puts?!

Hell if I know. All I know is that I am holding off on a shopping spree for puts and short positions while setting very tight stops on my long positions. I would rather miss out on a few percentage points by arriving late on the bear bandwagon than get wiped out while the market continues rallying. I advise you do the same.

Except gold; buy tons of gold...

1 comments:

Unknown said...

Good & informative. Thanks...




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