Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Testing Phase 1 complete

48 trades and 2 months later, I think I have completed the 1st phase of my testing this strategy.


Key highlights:

1.37% gain

average risk of only .49%

max drawdown was 2.65% which is probably my worst stat. But it was not because of any one losing trade - I had a series of 6/7 trades that lost in a row.

Also, I paid more than 2% of my account in commissions... is TOS too expensive? You bet!!

In any case, I am fairly satisfied with the results. I know that 2 things must change: my MFE to exit efficiency is a mere 33%. That means I am not capturing the max profit possible. So I am moving my far out target a little closer.

Also, I am getting stopped out way too much on trades that go on to win and win big. So I need to optimize my stop loss a little bit.

Apart from that, I can see, as I thought, around 60% of my trades will be profitable.

A note on the markets

In case you did not know, I am only simulating the above strategy. I am making decent profits trading this strategy on a daily basis. Mostly, I have been lucky and caught both the big down moves on S&P and exited very near the bottom.



 

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

My Excel Journal

Since March 11th, I have not had a chance to post everyday, but I traded three new trades in that time.
Nothing too exciting happened though. One loss, one breakeven, and one gain. One thing I noticed though, while I was not logging my trades, I was starting to really doubt myself and think "this is not working, I am not making any money, bla bla bla. I should revise my strategy" Actually, I even traded one trade going completely against my strategy (ended up in break even).

But as I sat down today to log all the trades, I noticed that my account position overall changed a mere ~.1% after commissions!! And, clearly I have not been losing - only 1 of the three trades resulted in a loss (and had i followed my method, two would have been wins rather than 1 breakeven). I thought it was very interesting to realize that just the simple act of not logging trades and going into the weekend had me thinking and going off on bad tangents.


Anyway, instead of posting all the trades I logged, I want to share my journal. The format is very similar to Big Mike's journal but I have changed a bunch of things to suit my needs. The data is very limited so some of the stats are a bit skewy (I only wish i was making 76%/year :D ).







Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Trades on 3/9/2011

3/9/2011 Trade 1:

Trade Details:
Long 2 ES contracts at 1319.5
Stop loss 1.25 - 5 ticks- below entry price at 1318.25

Strategy:
If price reaches 1320.5 - 4 ticks - move the stop loss to BE + 1 tick.
Target 1: 1321.25 - 7 ticks - sell 1 contract and set stop loss to 1321.25
Target 2: 1324.25 - 19 ticks - set trailing stop of 5 ticks

Outcome: Stopped out at initial Stop Loss. No biggie.

Exit1-MFE efficiency: 0%
Exit 1- Risk efficiency: -100.00%
MAE: 1
Exit 1 price: 1318.25
Exit 1 Profit: -139




3/9/2011 Trade 2:

Trade Details:
Long 2 ES contracts at 1315.75
Stop loss 2.25 - 9 ticks- below entry price at 1313.5

Strategy:
If price reaches 1317.75 - 8 ticks - move the stop loss to BE + 1 tick.
Target 1: 1319.75 - 16 ticks - sell 1 contract and set stop loss to 1319.75
Target 2: 1325.75 - 40 ticks - set trailing stop of 5 ticks

Outcome:
I am a moron! I accidently put in the wrong order and got out of the trade for 1 contract. Then I did not know what to do with the other contract (lacking a plan!), I put a trailing stop, got stopped out, then saw ES advance 10-15 ticks AFTER TWO YEARS YOU WOULD THINK I CAN PUT IN AN ORDER CORRECTLY!!!!
I would be the idiot who puts a "B" instead of an "M" and causes the next flash crash....

Exit1-MFE efficiency: 100% (obviously this stat is incorrect because MFE was much higher, but the way my journal records it, this showed up. Once I adjust the stats for benchmark, this number will be fixed)
Exit 1- Risk efficiency: 50.00%
MAE: 9
Exit 1 price: 1318
Exit 1 Profit: 105.5

Exit 2-MFE efficiency: 55.56%
Exit 2- Risk efficiency: 27.78%
MAE: 9
Exit 2 price: 1317
Exit 2 Profit: 55.5




Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Finally Starting a New Year with a New Strategy

I can't believe last time I posted was way back in September.
Anyway, it is a new year and time for a new beginning. I have spent the last few months testing and coding the TD indicators in Ninjascript and I think I have finally optimized it to something I can trade consistently. There are some more issues I need to work out but those will be resolved in due time.

A Change in Instrument
I am adopting a new trading style and strategy starting this year. For one, I will move away from options. Reasons:
1. The bid/ask spread is too much on everything but SPY and QQQQ. Even then, a 3-tick bid/ask spread means that any trade I make, I am in the hole $6 right awy including comissions. So I have to wait 6 ticks before I can show any profit. My trading style generally means I trade for only 10-20 ticks. aka up to 60% of my trade goes into just moving into profit. Terrible news for me.
2. Options often take on their own properties and deviate from the models and behaviors of the underlying. Since I chart the underlying, it does not make sense for me to trade the option while looking at the underlying security.
3. Too much hassle and calculations.

Also, I need to be able to trade off hours because of my job, etc.

So what do I trade? FUTURES!!! Woo hoo, join the bandwagon!!! But I can see why the futures market is so immensly popular:
1: bid/ask spread on ES, for example, is usually only 1 tick. Inlduing commissions and all, 2 ticks later I am in profit zone. Much more suitable to my trading style.
2: Futures, although do take on properties themselves, are generally easier to manage.

Defined Strategy
Strategy is simple: When I hit a 9 on a TD setup or a 13 on TD, and my composite index is also showing momentum in that direction (MA is above/below the actual value) I trade that direction, with clear targets and stop losses.


max loss per trade:$400 (so any trade with a stop loss exceeding that, I cannot trade).


Long term goals
Well besides the obvious: make a ton of money, I want to ultimately automate my strategy. In order to do so, I am tracking some key statistics that will help me refine my strategy. You will see these stats pop up in my future posts.
I also need to stick to the rules much more strictly this time around. For every trade, I am recording whether I followed the rule or not. Saying "Did not follow rules" almost reminds me of my elementry school teachers and imposes a sense of discipline that I cannot put on myself (growing up in India is tough!).

So, let us enjoy the ride:

First 3 trades:
3/7/2011
Trade details:

Long 2 ES contracts at $1307.25
Stop loss $4.50 (18 tickst) below entry price at 1302.75

Strategy:
If price reaches 1308.25 (4 ticks), move the stop loss to BE + 1 tick.
Target 1: $1311.50 (17 ticks) - Sell 1 contract and set trailing stop of 10 ticks
Target 2: $1322.75 (62 ticks) - set trailing stop of 5 ticks

Outcome:
Rules were followed.
MAE: 2.75.
Exit price for both contracts: 1307.25
Commission: $14
Profit: $(14)

Reflections:

All rules were followed. Looking at this trade the Risk/Reward ratio sucks. I calculate profit targets and stop loss based on fib ratios of the previous move. I should calculate the ticks of the ratios and apply them to the entry price (as I did with stop loss). Otherwise, I move the stop loss to BE after moving a mere 4 ticks.

Had I done the above, I would have waited 14 ticks (as opposed to 4) to move my stop loss to BE and all profit targets would have been 10 ticks higher.



3/8/2011
#1:

Saw a sequential set up along with the oscillator crossing over on both the 15 and 5 minute charts. I was a little late in getting into the trade because... well because I was not paying attention.

anyway here are the details:
Long 2 ES contracts at $1310
Stop loss $2.00 (8 ticks) below entry price at 1308

Strategy:
If price reaches 1312 (4 ticks), move the stop loss to BE + 1 tick.
Target 1: $1314 (12 ticks) - Sell 1 contract and set stop loss to 1312.
Target 2: $1319 (36 ticks) - set trailing stop of 5 ticks
Outcome:
Exit 1 rules were followed. Price moved to target and 1 contract was sold.
Exit1-MFE efficiency: 40%
Exit 1- Risk efficiency: 88%
MAE: 1.
Exit 1 price: 1313.50
Exit 1 Profit: $161

Exit 2 rules were broken slightly. I noticed that the contract reached a resistance level and was having a tough time breaking it. So I decided to set the trailing stop earlier and got stopped out.
Exit2-MFE efficiency: 80%
Exit 2- Risk efficiency: 175%
MAE: 1
Exit 2 price: 1317
Exit 2 Profit: $347

Reflections:
Had I not prematurely activated the trailing stop, I would have probably doubled my profit so should have stuck to plan...
on another note, I should start tracking Bench statistics to see exactly how much I missed out on.


3/8/2011 Trade 2:


A sell setup completed with falling osciallator lines. Additionally setup complete on 15 minute chart as well. I was expecting a big drop. Did not happen but I did make a small profit

Trade Details:
Short 2 ES contracts at $1324.25
Stop loss $2.00 (8 ticks) above entry price at 1326.25

Strategy:
If price reaches 1323.25 (4 ticks), move the stop loss to BE + 1 tick.
Target 1: $1321.25 (12 ticks) - Sell 1 contract and set stop loss to 1323.25.
Target 2: $1316.25 (36 ticks) - set trailing stop of 5 ticks

Outcome:
Exit 1 rules were followed. Price around 10 ticks then started retracing. A setup was completed in opposite direction so an immediate buy order was placed.
Exit1-MFE efficiency: 50%

Exit 1- Risk efficiency: 63%
MAE: 1.
Exit 1 price: 1323
Exit 1 Profit: $49

Reflections:
All rules were followed. Although the trade did not work out as planned, I feel pretty good about it since I followed the rules.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Strategy definition

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

September Slump

Real Account
September is historically a month when the stock market takes a hit. Unfortunately (for me) this September defied history and S&P500 climbed steadily more than 100 points. Unfortunately, this coincided with the time when I stopped paying close attention to the market and ended up taking some hits. As I look back, I can see that all my signals were there and had I followed my trading system, I would have profitted even though my bearish outlook was incorrect.

Oh well, lessons learned. For now, I have a lot of cash just because I am unsure as to what the market is doing. We broke the 1145 resistance I had been holding on to but my indicators are not giving bullish signals yet. The shorter term charts are bearish while the longer term ones are bullish/consolidating. See the chart below. An interesting point to watch for is the fact that the downward and upwards channels have created a confluence zone right above the current price. I think the market is going to test these trend lines and whichever side the price breaks to is the side to bet on.



Virtual Account
Since I am not a full time trader, keeping up with the signals spit out by my heat map was overwhelming. At one point I was up nearly 10% on the account (of $100,000) in a matter of 2-3 days but because I was unable to liquidate when the signals showed up(due to negligence), I did not capture the profits and now I am down 7%. Clearly, I need to either dedicate all my time to this or develop some sort of automatic trading system.

So, that is my next project. I have already refine the program to spit out buy/sell signals instead of TD studies' counts. The program needs some refinement and then eventually I am going to set it up so it can put through automatic buy/sell orders.

-Wown
stockjockz.blogspot.com

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Market Update

Real Account
SP500 reached a high of 1147, a fibonacci level I had identified previously, and closed 25 points lower today. I missed that boat until this morning. But I do believe we are headed lower. My last two trades have been closed for small losses because the reversal I predicted did not come. The signs are all there, I think it is just a matter of time.

Virtual Account
Using the heat map, I identified a few opportunities last week. I shorted JOYG, BIIB, and VZ last week. VZ and JOYG got stopped out for a loss while BIIB is still an open position.

This week, JOYG remains as a possible sell position. Additionally, GILD is an excellent sell candidate. Also on the sell watchlist are:
AAPL
CHRW
DD
AMZN

No buy prospects this week, again.

-wown
Stockjockz.blogspot.com